Why TNRI Predicts Firefox Phone Will Surpass iOS by 2013
Not only will B2G (known in the industry as Firefox Phone) leapfrog also-rans like BlackBerry, Google's Android, and Microsoft's Windows Phone in the smartphone category, it will almost immediately surpass Apple's iOS and become the universe's dominant smartphone platform by every possible metric.
It's a lofty prediction, especially considering the world's first Firefox Phone has yet to hit the market.
"It really comes down to this: the world is hungry for a truly open-source mobile platform," says Richard Driscoll, senior research analyst for TNRI's Gadgets and Gizmo Research Prediction team told TNRI. "There's going to be a lot of disruption going on in the coming weeks."
Indeed, TNRI's forecasting report confidently predicts a domino effect will take place once LG releases their first B2G phone later this year.
Driscoll laid out the scenario: "Android licensees are steamed by Google's acquisition of Motorola Mobility. That acquisition means that Google will soon be producing its own line of smartphones pre-loaded with the latest version of Android, leaving middlemen like HTC and Samsung holding the bag. They'll be looking for a different free, open-source platform to utilize, believe me. That's where Firefox Phone comes in."
"Same deal with Microsoft and their 'favored nation' status with Nokia," Drisoll added. "Microsoft has been touting the Nokia Lumia 900 as the 'official' Windows Phone... where does that leave the other manufacturers? Microsoft has alienated them by implicitly suggesting Windows Phones not made by Nokia are garbage. Their feelings are hurt, hurt enough to start seriously considering Firefox Phone."
But what about Apple? Driscoll chuckled at the mere mention of the name.
"Don't be fooled by their recent success and massive profits," he explained. "Everyone in the forecasting industry knows Apple is in a death spiral. They only make one phone, on a locked-down platform. People want choice. They want openness. And when they find out about Firefox Phone, they're going to leave the Apple ecosystem in droves. [Apple CEO] Tim Cook should be absolutely terrified of Firefox right now."
The industry also shouldn't discount emerging markets, Driscoll warned. "There are billions of people, right now, living in places like Somalia who have yet to choose an ecosystem. They're ripe for the plucking. If Mozilla plays their cards right, they could very well end up with the lion's share - or should I say fox's share? - of the developing market."
"We're still in the early stages of the smartphone industry," Driscoll said. "Anything could happen."